The NFL playoffs have arrived, as Wild Card Weekend sees six matchups square off for a spot in the Divisional Round. Saturday night will see a bitter AFC North divisional battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and the Baltimore Ravens (12-5). The Steelers and Ravens have a historic rivalry, as they face off for the third time this season. Let’s take a look at game predictions, best bet, and player props to look out for Steelers vs. Ravens on January 11.
NFL Wild Card Weekend – Steelers vs. Ravens Predictions
Betting Odds
Moneyline: Steelers (+440) vs. Ravens (-590)
Spread: Steelers (+9.5) vs. Ravens (-9.5)
Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-112)/Under 43.5 (-108)
Game Prediction & Best Bet
Ravens 23, Steelers 17
The Ravens are favored by the most points of any team playing in Wild Card weekend. Meanwhile, the over/under is only 43.5, likely due to the hard-fought nature of this AFC North matchup. While the Ravens blew out the Steelers 34-17 in their last meeting, this game looks to be much closer than it was in Week 16 .
The Steelers could not have had a worse end to the season, losing four straight games and slipping to the number six seed in the AFC. However, they played three tough games in 11 days against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs. The Steelers defense also had time to get healthy after playing on Christmas and held the Bengals to just 19 points in Week 18. Despite a total of 43.5, I also lean slightly to the under in this matchup. The AFC North tends to produce defensive battles, with the under hitting in 8/10 games between these two teams. With the stakes high in a playoff matchup, I expect a close, low-scoring affair between these rivals.
Steelers +9.5 (-105 on Fanduel)
As noted above, this is the largest point spread in any matchup this weekend. This is likely based on the Ravens’ Week 16 blowout and that the Steelers have lost four straight games. Nonetheless, head coach Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, particularly against divisional opponents. Tomlin’s Steelers are 38-14-2 ATS as an AFC North underdog – not a bad record.
While quarterback Lamar Jackson has put together another MVP-calibre season, his questionable record in both the playoffs and against the Steelers should be taken into account. Jackson has a 2-4 record in the playoffs, losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship last year. Meanwhile, prior to Week 16, Jackson had lost 4/5 games against Pittsburgh – throwing eight interceptions over that period. While Baltimore should advance, I expect Steelers vs. Ravens to remain competitive on Saturday. A healthy Steelers defense should be the deciding factor, with DPOY candidate T.J Watt leading the charge for this tough unit.
Player Prop Bets
George Pickens over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
George Pickens had a game to forget last week. The third-year wideout caught one of six targets for ZERO yards against the Bengals. While the Steelers offense has looked nothing but lethargic as of late, they are going to need to find a way to keep up with Lamar Jackson and co. Pickens is a volatile receiver but has big-play abilities, recording a 30+ yard reception in 7/8 games. The wideout has shown chemistry with Russell Wilson, who should continue to look his way often on Saturday. While the Ravens defense has improved lately, they are allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game (166) to wide receivers this season.
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+115)
After a slow start to the season, Mark Andrews has found his groove again. The veteran tight end has been a red-zone threat down the stretch and has scored a touchdown in six straight games. Andrews reached a career-high 11 touchdowns this season, and I’d bet on him continuing his streak on Saturday. The Steelers defense has also been weak against opposing tight ends, ranking bottom-ten to the position this season.
Main Image: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
