NFL free agency has begun to wind down and the fantasy community continues to digest the player movement, update rankings and projections, and formulate takeaways. The player movement has been fast and furious. Free agent signings and player movement do not always have direct implications, and that is today’s focus. With the New York Jets releasing Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams signing with the Los Angeles Rams, Garrett Wilson’s fantasy outlook albeit indirectly, was greatly affected.
Garrett Wilson Fantasy Outlook After Jets Off-Season Moves
Wilson Could Be Due For Serious Volume With Adam’s Departure
Garrett Wilson finished last season as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver, ending his 2024 campaign as the overall PPR WR10. However, the data suggests an even better season is coming with his return as the Jets’ alpha wide receiver. Wilson’s receiving metrics were as follows: In 11 games with Adams, his target share was 22.8%, in the 23 games without Adams over two seasons, his target share jumped to 28.5%. Wilson is also due positive touchdown regression. Across Wilson’s three seasons, his expected touchdown total is 22.5, and yet his actual total is only 14.
Going further, in the six games before Adams arrived in New York, Wilson averaged 16.23 fantasy points and 11 targets per game. After Adams joined the Jets wide receiver room, those numbers dropped to 14.04 and 8 respectively. To put that 16.23 per game average into perspective, that was top-5, right there with Drake London and Brian Thomas Jr. The presence of Adams and his prior relationship with Rodgers hindered Wilson from finishing even better in 2024. You can see that his metrics point to a potential top-5 wide receiver finish in 2025.
How Does New Jet’s Quarterback Justin Fields Fit Into Wilson’s Fantasy Outlook
Both sides need to be presented to give the full picture of Wilson’s fantasy outlook. No wide receiver can be successful without competent quarterback play. By now, the fantasy industry knows the Jets signed Justin Fields to be the new signal caller for the Jets. Fields signed a two-year. $40 million deal last week. Wilson is fully on board with that and excited to be reunited with his former college teammate. However, before we proclaim this a slam-dunk pairing, let’s dive into some relevant data.
One of Wilson’s highest percentage of patterns run within his route tree was a nine route or ‘go’ route. His 159 routes were the second-highest in the NFL last season. Fields, last season with the Steelers, was not proficient in that area, completing only 3 of 14 passes. The 21.4 % completion rate ranked bottom three in the league. In addition, among those downfield throws, Fields posted a sub-35 % catchable ball rate. New Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand may not be the best fit for Fields. Engstrand, the former passing game coordinator for the Detroit Lions, success came with Jared Goff under center. Goff and Fields do not possess matching skill sets.
In 2024, Wilson went at the end of the first round in fantasy drafts and current rankings have him as the overall WR17 and an ADP of 36.6. So the market is down on him based on last season’s WR10 finish. With a third-round ADP, buying the dip on Wilson and getting a legit alpha wide receiver in that area will be a fantasy value.
Main Image: Kevin R. Wexler-Nort – USA Today Sports
