After two seasons in the AHL with no call-ups, it’s time to evaluate what the Toronto Maples Leafs have in Topi Niemelä. A 2020 third-round pick, Niemelä had looked like a steal from the moment he was drafted. With great numbers as a teenager in the Finnish Liiga and a World Juniors Championship Top Defenceman Award, things were looking very promising. Now, five years after being drafted, with no NHL action, Topi’s development seems to have stalled.
What Do the Toronto Maple Leafs Have in Topi Niemelä?
Many aspects of Niemeläs’s game make him a desirable prospect. Of these attributes, his hockey IQ is the foundational piece. He excels at a two-way game, providing both offence and defence at both ends of the ice. In the defensive zone, Niemelä is almost always in the right position, maintaining his structure, and causing turnovers. Once in possession, he has a strong transition game, effectively moving the puck through the neutral zone and creating offensive opportunities. Furthermore, Topi’s ability to join the rush and contribute offensively adds another dimension to his game, making him a versatile asset for any team.
Niemelä’s skating plays a big part in his ability to defend and transition successfully. He uses his edge-work and quick transitional mobility to surf up on the opposition and close gaps with ease. Topi uses his speed to break the puck out on his own when there are no passing options. He joins the rush, bumps the puck out to a forward, and finds open ice for scoring chances.
Topi’s Weaknesses
The biggest area of concern for Niemelä is his strength and physicality. Coming in at 6″0” and 181 lbs, Topi isn’t a small player by any standard, he just doesn’t utilize it as he could. Often getting pushed off the puck and losing battles to someone stronger, Niemelä needs to keep putting on muscle if he wants to make the jump. Right now, the biggest question mark is whether he can defend the front of the net and win board battles in the NHL.
Additionally, if he wants to make the jump, Topi needs to show continuous improvements. This is something that seems to have stalled out this season. Offensive point totals are something that has been a staple of Niemelä’s game thus far. As a 19-year-old in the Liiga, he put up 32 points in 48 games. That year, during the World Juniors, he was also named defenceman of the tournament with eight points in seven games. Once making the move to North America, Niemelä burst onto the scene for the Toronto Marlies during their 2022/23 playoffs. In their seven games, he had five points and was a key contributor as a rookie. Last year, in his first full AHL season, he scored eight goals and had 39 points in 68 games.
Topi Niemela buries his 8th goal of the season.
He is up to 38 points this season.
The most points by a U22 Marlies Defenceman in a season is 39 (Andrew Nielsen 16/17) pic.twitter.com/X61WVclpEr— Rink Rat Report (@RinkRatReport) April 10, 2024
The issue now is that this season, Niemelä is only on pace for 26 points in 66 games. A big step down in production from last year. Considering his age, and offensive promise, you’d expect his point total to at least keep up with last year. The standout amongst this is that in addition to only a 26-point pace, he has no goals thus far. This poses the question of whether this is an off-year or if his development has stunted.
Defending those plays like it’s no big deal. Congratulations to @leijonat‘s Topi Niemela on being named the #WorldJuniors Best Defenceman! 🇫🇮 pic.twitter.com/FYEuBfnWRB
— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) January 6, 2021
Future Outlook
As Niemelä continues to develop, his ability to adapt to the physical demands of the NHL will be the key to his success. With the Leafs having a stacked defensive core and numerous depth defencemen trickling down to the AHL, his path to the NHL could be tricky. This defensive log jam is likely contributing to his down year in production by limiting his playing time and offensive opportunities.
The Leafs organization must stay patient with Niemelä. Based on previous years, this is more likely a natural down year, than the norm. With that being said, the time is now for Topi. He needs to step up and show the world what he can do. If he hopes to someday make the jump, he needs to put together some better totals down the stretch and into next season. Otherwise, it’s hard to see him beating out any of the Leaf’s depth defencemen. At only 22 years old, there is still time for Niemelä. With some tweaks to his game, Topi still projects to make the NHL eventually. I don’t think it would surprise many people to see Niemelä running the Leaf’s second power play unit a couple of years down the road.
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski – Imagn Images
