The NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams and added the First Four in 2011. Since then, teams like VCU in 2011 made a run from Dayton to the Final Four. UCLA nearly ended Gonzaga’s undefeated season in 2021 if it weren’t for a buzzer-beating heave from Jalen Suggs. There will always be much debate about who gets into the tournament, but these teams often make runs more consistently than other seeds do. There is something to be said about the momentum a team can pick up when playing a similar-level opponent. A 13-seed doesn’t get the chance to play a fellow 13-seed before they play a four-seed. These matchups allow momentum, something that becomes dangerous to all higher seeds.
North Carolina squeaked their way into the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State lost three of their last six games to find their way in Dayton. Texas finished 6-12 in SEC play, earning their spot because of two wins in the SEC Tournament. Xavier earned their bid by winning seven of their last eight games. However, each of these teams has an additional chip on their shoulder. Most of these teams have had arguments against why they should be in over West Virginia. For that reason, it seems entirely possible that these First Four games have plenty of drama, and possibly see a miracle run to the Final Four from one of their victors. So who is most likely to make that run?
First Four to Final Four: Is There a Miracle NCAA Tournament Run?
4. San Diego State
The Aztecs showed early in the season that they could beat top-tier opponents by beating Houston. However, those games in November seem so long ago. The Aztecs have amassed only one Q1 win since that time. They play in the weakest conference out of the First Four teams, and they haven’t been playing particularly well against them either. San Diego State has made miracle runs before, making it to the championship game in 2023. However, this team is not that squad. San Deigo State finished that season with the fourth-ranked defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They sit at 13th this season, which is still a great number if their offense didn’t rank 111th. Defense wins championships, but that offense is the worst in the at-large pool and worse than several of the auto bids in the NCAA Tournament.
3. Xavier
Xavier certainly doesn’t have a glaring weakness like San Diego State does, and they have been playing well lately. However, these Cinderella runs often come from an elite offense or defense. Xavier is 52nd in offensive and 44th in defensive efficiency. Neither is a glaring weakness, but neither will put them over the edge. Only the proven ability to win big games would convince me to rank this team higher. However, Xavier is 1-9 in Q1 games. They haven’t been able to pull off any big wins recently and rode their way into a tournament on a long win streak against Q2 and Q3 opponents. Teams always surprise me, and Sean Miller is a great coach. It just doesn’t seem like this year is their year to make a deep run from the First Four.
2. Texas
There will undoubtedly be some controversy about this one, but my logic is consistent. That is besides the fact that Texas and North Carolina are incredibly close to each other in this ranking. They both could make deep runs. Texas marks the start of the legitimate Final Four threats because of their ability to win big games. They racked up seven Q1 wins.
However, one thing puts me off: they have a losing record against Q1 and Q2. Most teams end up with a losing record against Q1, but they usually make up for it with a great record against Q2. Texas is 3-5 against Q2 opponents. They can beat most teams in the NCAA Tournament field, but they also could realistically lose their First Four game on Wednesday. Nobody would be that surprised. Do we get the team that lost to South Carolina by 15, or the team that beat Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament?
1. North Carolina
I wouldn’t have been surprised to see North Carolina out of the NCAA Tournament field, even though I did predict their inclusion on Friday before they played Duke. I also wouldn’t have been surprised if Hubert Davis was fired if they missed the tournament only a month ago (before they came out and said that he would stay). However, North Carolina finds themselves in the First Four. In one sense, their 1-12 record in Q1 doesn’t make too many people worried about a run. On the other hand, they certainly had their opportunities. They lost at Kansas (7-seed) by three, neutral-site vs. Michigan State (2) in OT by three, neutral-site vs. Florida (1) by six, and neutral-site to Duke (1) by three. The Tar Heels haven’t been able to close the door. But the talent they have shows that they can beat virtually anybody in the NCAA Tournament field.
Will an NCAA Tournament Team go From the First Four to the Final Four?
I would give it about a 15% chance of happening, which is high for those who doubt it. North Carolina and Texas have a chip on their shoulder with how they received a bid. They have the talent and ability to beat virtually any team they come across. Don’t be surprised if they make it to the Elite Eight. However, this set of one-seeds is incredibly tough. North Carolina would need to beat Auburn, a team they lost to by 13 if Auburn wasn’t eliminated earlier. It’s unlikely. Texas would need to beat Houston, a team that has lost one game since November (by one point). The hope for them is an upset. Louisville or Creighton will pose a tough test for Auburn and never count out Gonzaga against Houston.
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