McLaren enter this weekend’s Australian GP as the favourites – and their long runs in Free Practice have validated this consensus. The papaya squad are the ones to beat in Melbourne – with Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull working to close the gap.
Although potential rain on Sunday could throw a spanner in the works, Friday’s race simulations still reveal a fascinating story.
McLaren fastest, Mercedes and Ferrari in hot pursuit
Of course, much like qualifying simulations, long-runs in Free Practice can be impacted by several factors.
Teams constantly fiddle with fuel loads and engine modes before qualifying. Inevitably, this makes direct comparison slightly tricky.
Still, the race simulations from FP2 are usually representative. With this in mind, McLaren can be very satisfied with their first day of running.
These were the average times from Friday’s long run simulations:
- Norris (M) – 1:21.9
- Russell (H) – 1:21.9
- Leclerc (M) – 1:22.1
- Piastri (M) – 1:22.2
- Verstappen (M) – 1:22.2
- Hamilton (M) – 1:22.2
- Antonelli (H) – 1:22.3
- Lawson (M) – 1:23.4
The MCL39 set faster times than anyone else in race simulations.
Their average times were a few tenths faster than anyone else, whilst they also boasted very strong tyre management.
Mercedes were not far behind, especially given their long run was completed on the hard tyres.
Tyre degradation on the W16 was also minimal, with the Silver Arrows showing solid levels of consistency. However, as George Russell commented to the media, Mercedes struggled more on the soft tyres.
They were not the only team to report this issue. Williams also struggled to get heat into the softs, whilst they were relatively satisfied with their pace on the medium and hard compounds.
Regardless, the irregularities Mercedes encountered across different tyres – in many ways – are what differentiate McLaren to the other front-runners.
Fine margins behind McLaren
Andrea Stella’s team have no apparent weaknesses. Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari, for example, are still working on a few areas.
At Red Bull, balance was not a major limitation in Free Practice. However, much like in testing, the raw potential and grip levels of the RB21 are in question.
This is reflected in their race simulations which, especially in Lawson’s side of the garage, are a few tenths behind McLaren.
Meanwhile, Ferrari will fancy themselves as being the papaya team’s closest challengers. In fairness, all the top teams are aiming to give Norris and Piastri a headache on Sunday.
Still, it was the SF-25 that showed the most consistency across their qualifying and race simulations.
Charles Leclerc was the more competitive of the Prancing Horses, with Lewis Hamilton still getting up to speed in his new team.
In qualifying, the Italian outfit should be within striking range of McLaren. However, their pace over a race distance – at least in the dry – might be a step behind the papaya duo.
Too close to call in the midfield
Further down the field, margins were extremely close once again.
Williams continued to post strong times, although their qualifying laps were set on lower fuel loads than their immediate rivals.
The same can be said for VCARB, who (as confirmed by Helmut Marko) ran very little fuel in their best FP2 times.
Regardless, both teams should be in the mix for points and towards the front of the midfield.
Aston Martin showed flashes of impressive pace in Free Practice, including their long run.
Tyre degradation, which was a major limitation at some stages of last year, appeared more under control for Andy Cowell’s squad.
Alongside Alpine, who once again set steady times, the Silverstone-operation can optimistically aim for Q3.
Even Sauber cannot be written off this weekend. Nico Hulkenberg’s qualifying run was noteworthy, and his race simulations put the Swiss team within touching distance of the midfield pack.
The only team who can be disappointed so far this weekend is Haas.
Having focused exclusively on long runs in testing, the expectation was that Haas would make an impression with lower fuel runs.
As of yet, the VF-25 looks overwhelming.
